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经济政策不确定性对体育产业发展的影响——基于DAG和VAR分析

The Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on the Development of Sports Industry —Based on DAG and VAR Analysis

Leisure Sports and Health / 2024,4(2)：53-59 / 2024-10-17 106 139

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• Authors: 徐浩楠      杨玲     
• Information:

  湖北大学体育学院，武汉

• Keywords: 经济政策不确定性；体育产业发展；DAG；VAR
• Economic policy uncertainty; Sports industry development; DAG; VAR
• Abstract: 本研究旨在探讨经济政策不确定性对体育产业发展的影响。通过采用DAG模型，准确识别了两者之间的因果传导路径，克服了传统格兰杰检验的局限。进一步运用脉冲响应和方差分解分析，深入研究了经济政策不确定性对体育产业的长短期效应。研究结果表明，经济政策不确定性对体育产业发展具有累积影响；体育产业内部拥有正向反馈机制。鉴于这些发现，本文建议加强经济政策不确定性的风险管理，并促进体育产业的自身持续发展。
• The purpose of this study is to explore the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the development of sports industry. By using DAG model, the causal transmission path between the two is identified accurately, and the limitation of traditional Granger test is overcome. Further using impulse response and variance decomposition analysis, this paper deeply studies the long and short term effects of economic policy uncertainty on sports industry. The results show that economic policy uncertainty has a cumulative impact on the development of sports industry; There are positive feedback mechanisms within the sports industry. In light of these findings, the paper suggests strengthening risk management of economic policy uncertainty and promoting the sustainable development of the sports industry itself.
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.35534/lsh.0402010
• Cite: 徐浩楠，杨玲．经济政策不确定性对体育产业发展的影响——基于DAG 和VAR 分析［J］．休闲运动与健康，2024，4（2）：53-59．