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似然比证据评价方法的科学性探讨

A Scientific Discussion on the Evidence Evaluation Method of Likelihood Ratio

刑事司法科学与治理 / 2023,4(2)：84-93 / 2023-12-14 316 441

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• 作者： 牟丽¹³      王青¹      杨敏¹²     
• 单位：

  1．中南财经政法大学刑事司法学院，武汉；
  2．司法鉴定技术应用与社会治理学科创新基地，武汉

• 关键词： 证据评价；似然比；司法鉴定；事实认定；科学性
• Evidence evaluation; Likelihood ratio; Forensic identification; Fact finding; Scientificity
• 摘要： 证据评价是科学证据生成过程中的重要部分，影响法庭科学证据的应用。似然比评价方法描述两种竞争性主张的概率比值，具有客观性、透明性、容错率等特点。结合似然比评价在常见物证评价中的应用，从两个角度对似然比证据评价方法的科学性进行探讨。从司法鉴定的角度来看，过于依赖鉴定人主观判断的评价方法模糊了鉴定过程及结果中存在的不确定性，其影响会延续到事实认定环节。通过似然比评价能够有效提高科学证据的客观、有效性，为科学证据服务于事实认定提供更为科学的手段。从事实认定的角度来看，似然比评价方法能够量化证据对事实认定者的信念影响，弱化法官对科学证据的依赖性，强化法官事实认定的规范性、合理性，推动事实认定科学化。
• The evaluation of evidence plays a crucial role in the process of scientific evidence generation, exerting a significant impact on the utilization of scientific evidence within legal proceedings.The likelihood ratio quantifies the probability ratio between two competing claims, exhibiting characteristics of objectivity, transparency, and fault tolerance.Incorporating the application of likelihood ratio assessment in the evaluation of common material evidence, this study examines the scientific approach to evaluating evidence through likelihood ratio analysis from two perspectives.From the perspective of forensic identification, an evaluation method that excessively relies on the subjective judgment of the appraiser exacerbates uncertainty in both the appraisal process and its outcome, thereby perpetuating these uncertainties into the fact determination link. The evaluation of likelihood ratio can effectively enhance the objectivity and validity of scientific evidence, thereby providing a more scientifically rigorous approach for utilizing scientific evidence in fact determination. From the point of view of fact finding, The likelihood ratio evaluation method enables the quantification of evidence’s impact on the fact finder’s belief, reducing judges’ reliance on scientific evidence, enhancing the standardization and rationality of their fact finding process, and facilitating scientifically grounded factual determinations.
• DOI： https://doi.org/10.35534/cjsg.0402011
• 引用： 牟丽，王青，杨敏．似然比证据评价方法的科学性探讨［J］．刑事司法科学与治理，2023，4（2）：84-93．